Happy 2026!

We’re kicking off the year with a heavy dose of reality by asking:

Which businesses are the BEST & WORST to acquire based on real-world SBA 7a Loan defaults in the USA?

If we know this, we can reduce risk by avoiding high-failure-rate industries and, instead, targeting the most stable sectors with proven cash flow.

Luckily, Shem Doupé — a top SBA loan specialist at Truliant Federal Credit Union — has compiled the data for us:

The Parameters

So that the data isn’t skewed by micro-niche industries, an outdated market, or other types of SBA loans, the following parameters were used to compile these lists:

• Need a minimum of 30 closed loans

• Loans from the past 5 years (2021-2025)

• And acquisitions only (not other types of SBA loans)

The Top 5 Worst

5) Other Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental Companies - 5.69% Default Rate

4) All Other General Merchandise Retailers (i.e. Dollar General) - 5.69% Default Rate

3) Carpet and Upholstery Cleaning Services - 6.38% Default Rate

2) All Other Home Furnishing Retailers (Home Decor, Bedding, Kitchenware, etc.) - 6.49% Default Rate

1) Local Messengers and Local Delivery (Businesses providing point-to-point pickup and delivery of small items within a specific city. Think bike messengers, rather than Amazon last-mile delivery trucks) - 9.94% Default Rate

This week, Shem released a new video on LinkedIn to offer more context around this “worst” list: See HERE.

The Top 10 Best

10) Painting companies - Default Rate 0.66% - 68 Loans

9) Oil Change Shops - Default Rate 0.54% - 65 Loans

8) Misc. Manufacturing - Default Rate 0.54% - 66 Loans

7) Coin Operated Laundromats - Default Rate 0.50% - 158 Loans

6) Self-Storage Units - Default Rate 0.17% - 235 Loans

5) Portfolio Management and Investment Advice - Default Rate 0% - 124 Loans

4) Veterinary Services - Default Rate 0% - 140 Loans

3) Solid Waste Collection - Default Rate 0% - 42 Loans

2) Other Residential Care Facilities - Default Rate 0% - 45 Loans

1) RV Parks/ Compounds - Default Rate 0% - 63 Loans

What This Data Could Mean for You

The numbers don't lie: some industries are significantly safer bets than others when it comes to acquisitions.

Here’s 3 key takeaways to apply immediately:

1. If you're pursuing SBA financing, these default rates matter even more. Lenders are watching this data closely, and loans in high-default industries will face more scrutiny (or outright rejection).

2. Location-based businesses dominate the winners list for a reason. RV parks, laundromats, self-storage, and solid waste collection can't be easily outsourced or disrupted by big players like Amazon. They're asset-heavy, operationally simple, and recession-resistant.

3. Zero doesn't mean risk-free. While several industries show 0% default rates, remember these are businesses that got approved for SBA loans in the first place. They passed initial underwriting, had solid financials, and met strict criteria. So, due diligence still matters.

   The bottom line? Use this data as a guide, not a mandate. 

A great operator can succeed in a challenging industry, and a poor operator can fail in the "safest" sector. But why start with the deck stacked against you?

If you're targeting an industry with a high default rate, you'd better have a damn good reason — and an even better plan.

Want to dive deeper into SBA lending trends and what lenders are really looking for?

Connect with Shem Doupé on LinkedIn and check out his ongoing analysis.

Here's to making smarter, data-driven acquisition decisions in 2026.

Thanks for reading Acquiring & Exiting.

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